UFC 87 In-Depth Breakdown
By: Matt Boone, Webmaster of MMANEWS.com
INTRO
UFC 87 “Seek and Destroy” hits the pay-per view airwaves live tonight at 10:00PM EST. / 7:00PM PST. with a great card topped by three fights that could all be main events (one being most likely a Spike TV-special worthy headlining bout). In the next several paragraphs I will attempt to break down each of the three fights, choosing sides and explaining why.
It will be the first time the UFC has come to the Twin Cities in Minnesota, and they did so with two hometown boys in major fights – Brock Lesnar and Roger Huerta. The electricity in the building for the press conference (one of, if not the largest in UFC company history) and weigh-ins was nothing short of amazing. The build-up on the “Countdown to UFC 87” special also did an excellent job in building anticipation for three major fights.
Without any further adue, let's take a look at the top three fights on the UFC 87 card, in reverse order.
Kenny “Kenflo” Florian vs. Rogert “El Matador” Huerta
The significance: It's been said a million times, but I'll go ahead and make it a million and one – this, on paper, has the potential to be the best action-fight in 2008. That's no easy task with some of the impressive bouts we've seen so far from the various mixed-martial arts organizations in the U.S. and in other countries.
The Lightweight division almost always delivers excitement, and two posterboys for the title of “most exciting fighter” are going head-to-head to find out which is not only the most exciting, but which takes the next step to find out who is number two in the UFC 155 lb. division, where after B.J. Penn, any number of combatants could be the silver-medalist of the group.
Florian's last four fights: Since losing to Sean Sherk in a vacant UFC Lightweight title fight in October of 2006, Kenny Florian has been on a roll, winning four fights against four great opponents, and stopping them all within the three-round limit. “Kenflo's” first opponent after the unanimous decision loss to Sherk at UFC 64 was former PRIDE and SHOOTO veteran Dokonjonosuke Mishima. The man with possibly the hardest first name to pronounce in MMA history went down late in the third round to Florian, losing by rear-naked choke submission at the UFC Fight Night 9 show in April of 2007. From there, Florian would go on to defeat up and comer Alvin “Kid” Robinson with strikes a tad over four minutes of the opening frame. In my opinion, Florian's most impressive “name” victory since the Sherk loss was his next hand-raising effort, a rear-naked choke stoppage of top 155 lb. warrior Din Thomas at UFC Fight Night 11. There was the whole injury situation with Thomas during the fight, but never-the-less, Florian looked very impressive in that winning effort. Florian's last bout was a TKO victory from strikes over Joe Lauzon at UFC Fight Night 13 in April of this year (Florian's only bout in 2008 thus far). I'm not sure the general consensus on that fight, but I personally felt the stoppage was somewhat premature and that Lauzon was doing fairly well in his battle with The Ultimate Fighter season one finalist. Regardless, Florian picked up the “W” and now moves on to his first pay-per view fight since UFC 73 back in July of 2007 – against the newly controversial Roger Huerta.
Huerta's last four fights: Roger Huerta, the first-ever Sports Illustrated cover boy in MMA history, is taking another climb in quality opposition when he steps into the eight-sided fenced-in structure on Saturday night at UFC 87 in Minneapolis. Huerta's third PPV fight for the UFC was four fights ago, and was probably one of the most exciting fights in 2007 as he earned a unanimous decision victory over Leanord Garcia – a man who now fights one weight-division south over in Zuffa's “World Extreme Cagefighting” organization. Like with many Huerta fights, it was a war that was back and forth with Huerta ultimately getting the win-bonus, and my memory escapes me, but probably “fight of the night” bonus as well. From there he'd battle Doug Evans at the finale of season five of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, stopping Evans with strikes in just under four minutes of the second round. Huerta's next fight would be a unique challenge, as he was matched against submission wizard Alberto Crane at UFC 74 in August of 2007. Huerta didn't fail to impress, as he out-gunned Crane and got the TKO stoppage early into the third and final round. Huerta's last fight was a very exciting one, and again another jump up in competition for the Latino posterboy of the biggest MMA company in the world right now, as he battled the ferocious Clay Guida in a three round war that was also one of, if not the, most exciting fights in 2007. It was also the last time long-time UFC employee “Big” John McCarthy would wear a referee shirt and say “let's get it on” before two dudes in shorts and small gloves would pound the shit out of each other. Huerta faced possibly the most trouble he's ever seen in the UFC, getting rocked by Guida with a punch while on the ground. Huerta himself admitted he was out of it for a few seconds after the shot. Never-the-less, Huerta bounced back and quickly stopped Guida in about thirty seconds of the third round with a rear-naked choke submission. That was Huerta's last trip to a MMA bout, and it was in 2007, so that makes this Florian bout the first fight for Huerta in 2008.
Background/stats: Both guys have similar styles, as does many in the Lightweight division – fast paced, very aggressive, multi-dimensional, and just plain entertaining. One factor many bring up is the difference in competition, as you feel like Florian is the veteran due to him being a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter season one back in April of 2005. Florian has an official pro-MMA record of 9-3, with all nine of those victories coming by KO, TKO or submission. He likes to talk about how he “stops fights”, but taking a closer look at Huerta's “on-paper” history, you can almost say the same for “El Matador”. Huerta has an official pro-MMA record of 20-1-1, also with only four of the 20 victories coming by decision. Both guys got their start in 2003. Huerta is 25 years of age. Florian is 32 years of age. Florian is 5'10'' and Huerta is 5'9''. On paper, everything matches up well. The only difference is Florian has a higher-level of competition on his record, whereas Huerta is just now starting to fight the real challenging bouts of his career.
Prediction: Based on the poll here at MMANews.com, as of this writing (three hours after the poll went live on the website), 538 voters believe Florian will win the fight, and 477 voters feel Huerta takes the win. Me? I personally have a tough time picking a winner in this one. It seems most give Florian the edge, not just on our own website poll, but across a lot of other websites and forums. I'm not so sure about that. It really depends on what kind of fight we see. Florian has stated he feels he's better than Huerta at every aspect of the game. I personally give the advantage in wrestling to Huerta, and the striking I feel is more even than people think. Obviously with submissions I'll give the nod to Florian. So if the two keep it standing, it could go either way from where I'm sitting. On the ground, I see Florian with an advantage due to his superior submission ability. However, Huerta always seems to find a way to get his hand raised after 15 minutes inside a cage, similar to Matt Hughes in his prime, and I see that being the case again this Saturday night. I'm going to go with the hometown boy via decision victory after three exciting rounds. I will say this though, as exciting as this fight seems to be, for some reason I think it won't live up to the expectations. I'm a glass is half-empty kind of guy when it comes to fights living up to the hype – sorry.
“The Next Big Thing” Brock Lesnar vs. Heath “The Texas Crazy Horse” Herring:
The significance: Man, where do I start? I have so many complaints about this fight from a business perspective. The main one is why would UFC give Lesnar another fight that he's almost guaranteed to lose? That's not to count out Lesnar, but the Mark Coleman fight (which was originally scheduled for this card) would have been the perfect fight to give a guy like Lesnar at this point in his career. Coleman is an older wrestler who never fully picked up the striking, submission or cardio game of MMA. Lesnar is a stronger wrestler who actively competed more recently than Coleman, and simply would have taken the former UFC champion and PRIDE Grand Prix champion apart to get a much needed victory. Coleman couldn't take the fight, so they replace him with Heath Herring. Does UFC really want to do anything with Brock Lesnar? Frank Mir, a former UFC Heavyweight champion who is a wizard on the ground was his entry bout into the UFC. That was crazy enough, but Mir wasn't the same Mir we remembered and I'm assuming the match was made just so Lesnar could beat a guy promoted as former UFC Heavyweight champion. On paper though, and I'm not hindsight 20/20'ing this here, (I said it before the fight as well) Lesnar was going to take Mir down at some point and then what? It was almost inevitable that Mir would catch him in a submission at some point or another and Lesnar would fish-out-of-water react to the situation. That's pretty much exactly what happened, too. Now you give him a guy in Heath Herring who made a name for himself (see Tom Erikson, Mark Kerr, among other fights) in fighting enormous wrestlers with insane strength and great amateur wrestling accomplishments. He'd get taken down, laid on and controlled, and then explode and get the finish in exciting fashion. Not only that, but Herring is so ridiculously experienced in the MMA world and has top-level skills at every aspect of the game. He's a great striker with very underrated submission (and submission defense) ability, who has good wrestling and cardio to go with it. Sure, Lesnar is the better wrestler, but Herring is great off his back, as he's shown time and time again. So the significance of this fight is that of Lesnar possibly losing two in a row, and for all intents in purposes, as far as the casual MMA fan is concerned, will be seen as a guy who has yet to pick up a victory in MMA (even though he has one win over a guy who at the time had a 2-5 pro MMA record and was much smaller in size) and is just some big, cool looking WWE dude who can't fight. That's going to make it very hard to make any real money with Lesnar in the UFC, when if he was used right, and given the chance to develop into a legitimate mixed-martial arts competitor, could have been one of the biggest money-drawing stars in the UFC due to his WWE, NFL and amateur wrestling background. The only thing I can think of that makes sense is UFC has given up on Lesnar and are using him to convert high-B-level fighters in the Heavyweight division to guys they can make a name for, or in Mir and Herring's case, re-establish a name for and push towards the title. Hell, Mir is already guaranteed a title shot and got to be the coach of the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter. I highly doubt Mir got all of that because of the 2-2 record (with the wins being against Antoni Hardonk and Dan Christison) he had post-motorcycle accident before the Lesnar victory. Anyways…
Lesnar's last two fights: I've already pretty much detailed Lesnar's only two MMA fights to date. He has the win over Min Soo Kim, a smaller Judo player with a 3-5 record (2-5 at the time). It wasn't the prettiest win either, a sloppy TKO from ground-and-pound stoppage a minute into the fight. The Mir fight I have a lot of problems with how that's presented by Dana White and even a lot of forum/blog fans here on the web. Everyone says Lesnar showed a lot in the fight and could become a very real threat in the Heavyweight division. Based on what?! He's always been a guy who could “potentially” be a big deal in the division due to his size/strength and wrestling background, and on the business-side, due to his celebrity. But what did he do in the Mir fight that was so impressive? He threw a punch that didn't really even fully connect and got Mir to the ground. That much (going to the ground) everyone and their mother expected. But once on the ground, Lesnar was like a kid in his first street fight throwing wild, sloppy arm-punches to a turtled-up Mir. A few seconds later, blamo, kneebar and the tap out. Real impressive.
Herring's last two fights: We'll keep the “last fights” even for both fighters for all of these breakdowns and since Lesnar has only had two fights thus far, we'll only look at Herring's last two fights in this portion of the column. He looked impressive in both, while at the same time not showing his full potential in either. Against Cheick Kongo (his last fight) he came in and dropped the amazing striker with a bomb of his own seconds into the first round. He was taken down by Kongo, however, but reversed a lot as he always does in his fights when they hit the ground. He won it via split decision, so on paper that doesn't sound too impressive, but the performance was closer to the “Texas Crazy Horse” we're all used to. Prior to that, Herring lost for the third time to current UFC interim Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Nogueira started off pretty much owning Herring standing, with the one real highlight for Herring, and one of the most talked about moments in that fight coming in the form of a Herring high-kick that completely floored Nogueira and almost knocked him out. Nogueira, doing what he always does, survived, rebounded and came out the victor with a unanimous decision. Herring is 2-2 in the UFC and unless you count the Kongo fight, hasn't had an impressive “name” victory added to his record since Igor Vovchanchyn back in 2002 – and even that was a close fight that started off as an amazing war that eventually became a win that Herring himself wasn't too visibly thrilled about.
Background/stats: I covered this topic in my opening statement for this fight, for the most part, as well. Lesnar's background is obvious, former NCAA amateur wrestling champion with incredible power. He's most known for his short-lived career in the WWE, where he quit because he didn't like the travel involved. He tried out for the Minnesota Vikings NFL team, but didn't make the squad. Now he's an MMA fighter with a 1-1 record and only two minutes and change in actual pro-action. Herring is an insanely experienced MMA fighter who has fought virtually everywhere – making his mark in PRIDE with the Tom Erikson win back in October of 2000. He already had 19 fights going into that contest and got his start in MMA way back in 1997 in battles, strangely enough, against Evan Tanner. Herring has a pro-MMA record of 28-13 with 23 of the 28 victories occuring inside the distance. 16 of the 23 victories were by submission as well, so we could have a repeat performance of the Lesnar-Mir style match up in this one, unless it stays standing long enough for Herring to land some of the vicious kicks he's known for. Herring has battled some of the best fighters in the world: Nogueira (three times), Fedor Emelianenko and Mirko CroCop, just to name a few of the “bigger names” on his record. Despite losing to all of the aforementioned guys, Herring has shown an insane ability to endure punishment, avoid submissions, and if given the chance to stand for any lengthy amount of time, has the striking skills to make you wake up in the dressing room wondering what happened.
Prediction: I'm not going to waste much time here – Heath Herring wins this fight. I'm torn on how he'll win it, although I lean towards a submission – assuming the fight will be on the ground a lot due to Lesnar's superior wrestling. Our fans couldn't disagree with me more, as our last MMA poll asked who you felt would win and Lesnar won by a large margin, picking up 2125 votes while Herring only grabbed 1233 votes.
Georges “Rush” St-Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
The significance: Quite obvious – the UFC 170 lb. Welterweight championship belt. It's what drives GSP. Fitch as well, with this being his first pay-per view main event in the UFC. If Fitch wins, it keeps the Welterweight division alive a bit longer. If he doesn't, all that's really left for GSP is a rematch with B.J. Penn, and possibly a fight with Thiago Alves, if he can get one more decently impressive win. People talk a lot about how this guy cleaned out the division and that guy cleaned out the division. No one in history has cleaned out an entire division quite like Georges St-Pierre. You can argue Anderson Silva has, but the level of equal opposition for Silva to fight at 185 lbs. is not even in the ballpark in that of GSP and 170 lbs. The laundry list of top names St-Pierre has not only defeated, but destroyed at 170 lbs. makes him in my opinion the best pound for pound fighter in MMA today. A lot claim Anderson Silva is, but again I point to the level of competition each guy has faced and how they handled them. If you look at Silva's pre-UFC career, he's got some losses against guys who people would think has no business even being mentioned in the same sentence as Silva today. And it's not like when those losses occured, PRIDE wasn't touting Silva similar to how UFC is modern day. He was the newest “Silva” animal to come out of Chute Boxe, and proved so with certain victories, but then unexplicibly lost to guys he shouldn't have lost to. GSP only has two losses in his entire career – and in rematches he beat both guys back – in Hughes' case twice, to make sure there was no doubt. Let's not forget about Jon Fitch while we're at it either. Fitch is on a perfect 8-0 run in the UFC right now, which is well documented in the build-up to this fight. But the guys he defeated aren't just any-old opponents. These were legitimate bad mother f***ers, and Fitch dominated most of them. More on that next…
Fitch's last eight fights: Since everyone wants to point to Fitch's 8-0 run in the UFC, we'll go ahead and make “last __ fights” for this one the number eight – which also happens to be how many sides there are in the cage the two will battle in tonight. Fitch has a perfect 8-0 record since joining the UFC, but as I mentioned above, it's not just any 8 wins. It's 8 wins all against legitimate tests. Fitch's entry bout in the UFC came in the form of Brock Larson, a guy who recently competed for the 170 lb. title in the WEC, his current home. Fitch got the unanimous decision win in that fight, which went down back in October of 2005 at UFC Fight Night 2. (Yes, Fitch has been around since the second Spike TV live fight card for the UFC). Fitch would go on to submit top 170 lb. warrior and Ultimate Fighter reality show veteran Josh Burkman with a rear-naked choke at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of 2006. From there, Fitch got a TKO over a guy who is now really making a name for himself, with back-to-back wins over Karo Parisyan and Matt Hughes. Of course I'm talking about Thiago Alves – one of few guys left to challenge GSP at 170 lbs., should he get past Fitch tonight. Fitch's first PPV fight came in the form of a prelim victory via decision over Kuniyoshi Hironaka at UFC 64 in October of 2006. UFC 68 in March of 2007 would see Fitch get his second UFC PPV win over the durable Luigi Fioravanti, another guy who flies under most people's radar, despite being a legitimate fighter. One of Fitch's other real impressive wins came against submission specialist Roan Carneiro, where the submission specialist was submitted by Fitch with a rear naked choke just one minute into the second round of their bout at UFC Fight Night 10 in June of '07. Most people learned of the name “Jon Fitch” from his next fight, a win over Diego Sanchez at UFC 76. Fitch grabbed the split decision victory, even though many felt it was a unanimous winning performance. Fitch last fought in March of this year, winning a unanimous decision over another under-the-radar fighter in Chris Wilson at UFC 82. GSP is clearly on another level than all of the aforementioned guys, but Fitch, the complete opposite of Lesnar, was brought along in perfect fashion. He slowly beat better and better guys until now, where he finally gets his much-deserved shot at the UFC's 170 lb. crown.
St-Pierre's last eight fights: Fitch isn't the only guy to have a hilacious past eight bouts inside the octagon. GSP's list is more impressive than Fitch's, but the only thing that makes it a bit more equal is GSP isn't 8-0 in his last eight fights. He holds a 7-1 record in his last eight, never once having an easy opponent to fight. The only “easy” opponent he had was mandatory, and ended up pulling off one of the biggest upsets in MMA history. We start with Frank Trigg, a two-time challenger of the UFC Welterweight title who now competes one division north and is finding success again fighting outside the UFC. GSP absolutely demolished Trigg, putting on a MMA clinic and submitting Trigg with a rear naked choke at four minutes into the very first round. From there we head to Sean Sherk, former UFC Lightweight champion and one time challenger for the UFC Welterweight title. Much like Fitch, Sherk fought mostly on prelims, stacking up a number of wins before getting his shot at Matt Hughes, where despite putting up a game-effort, came up short in a decision loss. However, when Sherk met GSP, it wasn't a game-effort that went five hard rounds. GSP basically ran through Sherk as well, stopping him in the second round at UFC 56 in November of 2005. After that we go to one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world, and a guy GSP will likely fight again should be defeat Fitch tonight – current UFC Lightweight champion B.J. Penn. GSP got the nod via split decision in controversial fashion, as half the world felt Penn won, while the other half thought GSP did enough to earn the right to have his hand raised. Then it was time for the rematch the world had been waiting for, after picking up wins over Trigg, Sherk, Penn – and let's not forget Jason “MayheM” Miller either, GSP got his second shot at Matt Hughes, and his second chance to become Welterweight champion. Even though GSP looked good against Hughes in the first fight, he got caught in an armbar with one second left in a round he was winning. This time, however, the GSP we all know and love today is the man who showed up to battle the country boy. GSP ran through Hughes, much like Trigg and Sherk, knocking him out early into round two at UFC 65 in 2006 to finally capture the UFC Welterweight crown. He'd lose the belt in his next fight against Matt Serra. Most felt Serra had no chance in hell of beating GSP, nor did he even deserve a shot at the title, but it was mandatory due to stipulations set for The Ultimate Fighter 4 that year, which stated whoever won the show got a shot at the title in their weight class. Serra pulled off the upset of a lifetime, knocking out GSP at just three minutes, twenty five seconds of round one at UFC 69. GSP would put together two more wins before getting another shot to regain his title, and he looked very impressive in defeating Josh Koscheck in the first of those two. Thought to be the better wrestler, Koscheck found himself on his back after multiple GSP takedowns throughout the three-round bout, which GSP won via unanimous decision. The rubber-match with Hughes was all that was left before GSP got a crack at Serra, and once again – he didn't disappoint. GSP submitted Hughes with an armbar late in the second round to earn a chance to win his belt back. And that brings us to GSP's most recent fight, a TKO over Serra in the first ever UFC event in GSP's home country of Canada. GSP got the stoppage late in the second round to regain his UFC Welterweight title in a fight he dominated from start-to-finish.
Background/stats: Fitch is seemingly the more accomplished amateur wrestler, but when it comes to utilizing wrestling in MMA – that's a question mark in this fight, as GSP always seems to out-wrestle wrestlers in high-profiles matches. Sherk, Hughes (twice), Koscheck and Trigg were thought to have wrestling advantages going into their fights with St-Pierre, and each and every one of them found themselves fighting off their back at one point or another against “Rush”. Stand-up skills you have to give the advantage to GSP. Submissions I'd also lean with GSP, although Fitch has submitted guys like Carneiro who are supposedly wizards on the ground. Neither guy will have a problem with cardio, as both always come in great shape and fight hard for the duration of their fight. A few advantages GSP has is the infamous “octagon jitters” you always hear about. Fitch has many victories in the UFC, sure, but so did GSP going into the first Hughes first – and he claims, like many others have in the past, that when it came to being in the main event for a world title against someone you really respect as a fighter, it's a different feeling and effects your performance. One advantage I see people listing in breakdowns of this fight is the fact GSP has had five round fights before, whereas Fitch has not. That's irrelevant here, as GSP has been in scheduled five-rounders, but has never had to come out for even a fourth round in his career. Fitch has gone the distance three rounds plenty of times himself. Overall MMA records – GSP holds a record of 16-2, with only three bouts going the distance – those being against tough guys like Karo Parisyan, Josh Koscheck and Jason “MayheM” Miller. Fitch has an overall record of 17-2, but with 7 of those bouts going the full time limit.
Prediction: I haven't read forums enough to know for sure what the general consensus is on this fight, although I assume most are thinking it's another easy win for GSP, as Fitch isn't bringing anything he hasn't seen and dealt with before. I can see that point, but at the same time, Fitch is on an incredible roll right now and it's just one of those where I can't really explain why, but I feel Fitch has a very good chance to take this one. Ultimately if I were placing money on the fight, I'd have to throw the bucks down on GSP, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fitch pull off the upset here. On one hand I hope he does, as it buys time for more stars to evolve in the division like Thiago Alves, Carlos Condit (who could be coming in from the WEC). Plus I'd like to see if Karo Parisyan can bounce back and get up there with a quick/impressive win, maybe over Matt Hughes or someone like that. I'd like to see UFC work to bring in Jake Shields as well. On the other hand, I hope GSP takes it, as I'm dieing for the GSP-B.J. Penn II fight, especially if it's built as a rematch from a controversial split decision first fight, with both guys being two-time UFC champions – Penn one-time at 170, one-time (and currently) at 155, and GSP – two times (one currently) at 170.
OUTRO
If you made it to this part of the column you must really be jacked for tonight's show, as I only touched on three fights and still managed to babble on much longer than I thought I would.
Make sure to check out UFC 87 “Seek and Destroy” on pay-per view tonight, live from Minneapolis, Minnesota with a 9:30PM EST start-time, for the pre-show of course. The main PPV begins at 10:00PM. While I'm at it, what happened to the pre-shows being 15 minutes long and played twice. Is it just me or are they 10 minutes now and play three times in a row? There has to be a better way!
If for some reason you can't check out the show on PPV tonight, which I strongly give my reccomendation to do so, we'll have you covered here at MMANews.com with live play-by-play results coverage of the event.
Fans wanting to share their thoughts on tonight's big UFC event can do so in our online forums, which recently surpassed the 30,000 membership sign-up mark, by logging on to http://forums.mmanews.com.
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