Luis Cruz reporting…
Pride 33 Breakdown with Predictions
`The second coming’ is upon us, just days away. Right off the bat, I must say, that this card seems miles apart from the first U.S. show by Pride. While the first card was entertaining, and an overall great experience, this one seems to bring more competitive bouts. There have been numerous rumblings about Pride being purchased by either the UFC or Ed Fishman, who currently is the President of Pride U.S. But will that all change if Pride can pull off a `win’ with the fans at 33? As we look at this card on paper, I will go over each bout and give my take on who will have their hand raised in victory.
Sergei Kharitonov vs. Mike Russow
While unconfirmed from the time of this writing, it seems that this match will be added to the card. Originally scheduled to face Kharitonov was Gilbert Yvel but because of past incidents, he was not cleared by the commission. So Russow has stepped up to the plate last minute to fill in. While most people can see Kharitonov having a relatively easy night, Russow must be given credit for stepping up against a caliber of opponent as this with this short of notice. Kharitonov is looking to, once again, establish himself as a top Heavyweight in the sport after suffering back to back losses. This fight could give him a small step towards it or if he were to suffer a defeat it could set him way back and in serious trouble of getting a title shot anywhere in the near future.
Prediction- Sergei Kharitonov via TKO round 1
Joachim Hansen vs. Jason Ireland
Everytime he has stepped up in class, Ireland has come up short. Now he steps in with one of the top Lightweights in the world in Hansen. This Shooto and Pride veteren has been in with the likes of Edwards, Aoki, Uno, Mach, Azeredo, Kawajiri, and Gomi amongst others. Hansen has faced the cream of the crop of Lightweights so anything Ireland brings, I feel Hansen will be ready for. This is a good experience fight for Ireland but I can’t see him pulling the upset.
Prediction- Joachim Hansen via TKO round 1
Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Travis Wiuff
This match might not come off, but is still listed on PRIDE's official website – so we'll go ahead and talk about it anyway. In an interesting matchup, Nakamura takes on the very experienced Wiuff. Nakamura is another fighter whose come up short when stepping up in class. All his losses come at the hands of MMA’s top fighters. Wiuff is one of the busiest fighters in all of MMA having over 50 fights in just five years. With Wiuff utilizing his wrestling and Nakamura’s Judo, this fight will come down to takedowns. Since both have good ground skills offensively but limited defense, this will be determined by who gets the takedowns and controls the action. It could turn into a stalemate of sorts and that will determine the scoring.
Prediction- Kazuhiro Nakamura via Split Decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
This pits a top 205lbs fighter against a relatively new fighter to the sport. This can only be viewed as Sokoudjou being thrown to the wolves. Nogueira should make short work of Sokoudjou and end it anyway he wants, anytime he wants. This is an ok `stay busy’ fight for Nogueira but seemingly pointless at this point in his career. Most, if not all, MMA fans wanted to Nogueira vs. Silva showdown on this card but we will all have to wait a little bit longer.
Prediction- Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via submission round 1
Hayato Sakurai vs. Mac Danzig
Danzig has always been considered a very good Lightweight who should be fighting on a bigger stage than KOTC. He now gets his opportunity and it won’t be easy. He faces “Mach” Sakurai who holds wins over some of the sport’s best Lightweights. Sakurai is looking to get himself back in the title hunt and Danzig is trying to make a name for himself by toppling a top Lightweight. This fight could be explosive if both fighters put it all on the line. While I don’t completely count out Danzig, I believe Sakurai’s experience in big fights will shine. Danzig will make a name for himself, unfortunately I believe it will be in a losing effort.
Prediction- Hayato “Mach” Sakurai via unanimous decision
Frank Trigg vs. Kazuo Misaki
This is another interesting fight. Trigg, coming off what some would consider a big upset when he defeated “Mayhem” Miller, looks to stretch his comeback success to two fights against two good 185lbers. Misaki had a very good showing at the Bushido Welterweight grand prix last year. He was able to take a deserved unanimous decision against current Pride Welterweight champion, Dan Henderson. He then went on to get armbarred by 185lbs phenom Filho. As luck would have it, Filho had to drop out of the finals due to an injury so Misaki was called back to replace him. He faced a man who was on a hot streak himself in Denis Kang. Misaki was able to pull a close split decision and win the tournament. Now these two will face off and one will make a huge statement while the other takes a hard step back. While Trigg is fighting at a size disadvantage, I think his wrestling and standup might be good enough to secure him a decision in the end but it won’t be easy.
Prediction- Frank Trigg via unanimous decision
Takanori Gomi vs. Nick Diaz
First I would like to throwout my distaste for nontitle fights, which seem to be a common occurrence for Gomi. He is the champion, there should be no reason he doesn’t face these contenders with his title on the line. As for the match itself, stylistically this is a horrible matchup for Gomi. Nick Diaz has proven he is a threat at 170lbs and now he’s taking his long frame to 160lbs to challenge Pride’s Lightweight champion. Gomi will be giving up 4″ in height and facing a man that excels where he seems to lack, on the ground. Diaz brings his Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu and will no doubt look to utilitze it. Gomi has very heavy and fast hands and while Diaz has shown confidence in his standup, he would be wise to take this fight down quickly where he can end it. His long reach should be able to keep him at a safe distance standing and maybe even connect some shots if he uses the jab to set them up. If this fight ends up on the ground, whether he is on top or using his guard from underneath, Diaz could catch Gomi and end this fight by submission. If Gomi catches Diaz standing, he could finish him. My gut is telling me that Diaz will come in the smarter fighter and get this fight down. This fight could also steal the show.
Prediction- Nick Diaz via submission round 3
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alistair Overeem
In a rematch from the 205lbs grand prix, “Shogun” looks to repeat his great performance from then. Overeem has been in a slump lately only having defeated the questionable Vitor Belfort in his last 4 fights. This would be the perfect fight to make everyone forget, at least temporarily, the abuse he received from Arona and Nogueira recently. Rua has been on a tear with no slowing down in site. I expect another exceptional performance from the man who could be the uncrowned 205lbs champion. But what happens if he keeps winning? As long as Silva is the champion, it’s a safe bet we will never see “Shogun” get his well and long deserved title shot. Maybe it’s time for him to seek other options like a move up to Heavyweight.
Prediction- Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via TKO round 2
Wanderlei Silva vs Dan Henderson (Middeweight Title Fight)
In a bit of a strange decision, The Middleweight champion will defend against the Welterweight champion with only the Middleweight title on the line. While most expected Nogueira to receive his title shot, it was later decided that it would instead be Henderson. While I think Henderson in one of the best fighters in MMA, I would have liked him to defend his title against a Welterweight contender, as there are many. I would have liked to seen the Nogueira and Silva match take place instead. This is a chance for Henderson to redeem a loss and also become the first multi-weight champion in Pride or UFC. If he were to lose, most people would just say, he was suppose to lose so no big deal. Now on the flipside, if Silva wins, he was suppose to win. Whereas if he were to lose to Henderson, then was beaten by someone he should’ve been able to get by without much difficulty, in MOST people’s eyes. This is a lose-lose situation for Silva where he has nothing to gain but another `w’ in his column. While Henderson does have heavy hands and great wrestling, I think Silva will control the majority of this bout with some vicious ground and pound in route to a clear decision.
Prediction- Wanderlei Silva via unanimous decision to retain Middleweight title
Thoughts
All in all, this should provide for some good action. My only beef, as I stated, was the fact that the champions are not defending their titles (aside from Silva) and also some of the matchmaking. Aside from a couple gripes this should still deliver it’s intent, which is entertainment and good fights. As long as Pride keeps bettering their cards for these U.S. shows, they should get better turnouts each time and more P.P.V. buys. I look forward to another great event from Pride and don’t forget to stay tuned here at MMANews.com as I turn in live reports from the Thomas and Mack center starting at the weigh ins. That will include weigh ins, pre-fight coverage, live play by play of the event and fights, and post-fight interviews with the fighters. If you’re going to be in the area, purchase tickets, as Pride is a must see event in person.
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