UFC 68 Odds, Breakdown, and Predictions
By Luis Cruz
We’re just over fourty-eight hours away from “The Uprising”. While this card may seem to want to showcase the UFC’s top talent trying to reclaim their top tier status, one thing Pride has taught us this past weekend is some younger talent might just be a little too hungry to look past. This will mark the not so surprising return of, former two time UFC Heavyweight champion, former two time UFC Light Heavyweight champion, and UFC hall of famer, Randy “The Natural” Couture. While many, including myself, are not surprised at his return, it will be interesting to see how Randy can compete with a current Heavyweight champion who is on top of his game, at this stage in his career. This card also pits former UFC Middleweight and Welterweight champions, Rich “Ace” Franklin and Matt Hughes on their road to a comeback to reclaim their glory and titles. As we take an in depth look at this card, I will give my thoughts on each fight, along with the current odds, if available, from betus.com, as well as my predictions for each fight. I will give my take on how good I feel the risk is for the odds on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being a very good risk. So let’s begin!
Jason Gilliam vs. Jamie Varner
Varner is coming off a loss to current UFC number one contender, Hermes Franca. This already gives a mental edge to Varner as he has now seen the lights and glamour of competing at a UFC event and against one of their top Lightweights. Gilliam brings an unblemished record to this fight but has not had a big fight as of yet and his competition up until this point has been less than stellar. Varner, outside of his fight with Franca, also had not had a meaningful fight. This could be a fight which determines a stay in the UFC for one and a short stay for the loser. The man who wins this fight is the man who realizes this and fights as such. Whoever chooses to fight this bout “safe” or not 100% is the guy I feel will wake up on the 4th and kick himself. Varner should look to get the takedown early while Gilliam should keep his distance and use his reach to set up some hard strikes while they’re on their feet.
Prediction- Varner via submission in round 2
Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent
Both fighters are coming off losses in their UFC debuts. So both of these men will be looking to extend their stays also. While I believe Dent is schooled enough on the ground to not get submitted, I see Tibau having a definitive strength advantage that will allow him to get the takedowns and control the fight en route to a victory.
Prediction- Tibau via unanimous decision
Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti
This fight, to me, is one of the better match ups, on paper, for this card. Both are very skilled fighters. Fioravanti looks to make a splash in the Welterweight division but it will not be easy as his opponent is on the cusp of placing himself in the midst of the top Welterweights in the UFC. If this fight stays on the feet for long periods of time, it could be an advantage for Fioravanti. He will have to contend with the height and reach of Fitch, which won’t be new to him as he has always been the smaller man. A lot of people may see this as a bad match up for Fioravanti, but I feel, with his “A” game, he can come away with a victory. I will go out on a limb and say Fioravanti gets inside the reach and catches Fitch with a hard shot to hurt and drop Fitch. That will lead to some follow up strikes that will force a referee stoppage.
Prediction- Fioravanti via TKO round 3
Rex Holman vs. Matt Hamill
Holman will get a chance to end the young prospects hype in his own backyard. Holman will, more likely than not, have his hometown crowd cheering for him as he takes on `The Ultimate Fighter’ season two star, Matt Hamill. While I must admit that I was hardly impressed by the young star in his last outing, you can’t take away his wrestling skill. I felt that Hamill’s performance against a fellow “Ultimate Fighter” contestant Seth Petruzelli, showed that he had not taken any big leaps or bounds in improving since the show. I was under the impression that the tutelage he received from Tito Ortiz, since then, would have shown. His stand up was still nothing to be admired and seemed like the same fighter from the show. He was caught twice and almost KO’d. To his credit, Hamill did hang on and pull out the decision utilizing his great wrestling. Maybe this will be the fight that Hamill shows his improved skills and starts his climb up the Light Heavyweight rankings. Holman will no doubt have to overcome the superior wrestling Hamill brings and it may prove too much.
Prediction- Hamill via unanimous decision
Betus.com Odds:
Matt Hamill -280
Rex Holman +220
My Risk Rating- 3
Jason Lambert vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral
Since his disappointing performance against “The Iceman” for the Light Heavyweight title, “Babalu” returns to try and claw his way back up. Standing in his way is “The Punisher” Jason Lambert. Lambert was last seen being mounted and pummeled by Rashad Evans at UFC 63. Prior to that fight, Lambert had built a nice eight-fight win streak against decent competition. On the other side is a bit of a mirror image. Sobral was last seen at UFC 62 trying to chase down Light Heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell like a wild man until he was caught with a big shot. Liddell went on to finish Sobral in the opening round after dropping him. Before that fight, Sobral had built a nice and impressive ten-fight win streak with some good names on his resume. It seems he let the moment capture him instead of vice versa in his title shot against Liddell. Now Sobral knows what not to do if he were to get another opportunity at the title and with Liddell possibly moving up to Heavyweight in the near future, the division could be left wide open for the taking. I believe Sobral’s experience in big fights will be too much for Lambert to overcome and put “Babalu” back to his winning ways.
Prediction- Sobral via submission round 2
Betus.com Odds:
Renato Sobral -350
Jason Lambert +275
My Risk Rating- 1
Rich “Ace” Franklin vs. Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald
Franklin returns after his devastating loss to current Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Not in almost three years has Franklin had to come back from a hard loss like this. If we look back to then, we can see that Franklin is not the type of guy to be affected in a way that will show the loss has mentally killed him. He came back strong then and I see a similar result here. MacDonald has made a name for himself quick in the UFC. Brought in to be somewhat of a test for Ed Herman, he chose to play the role of spoiler instead submitting Herman by way of a triangle. He then went on to submit Herman’s teammate and friend, Chris Leben. Those two back-to-back wins catapulted his status to a serious contender in many people’s eyes. Now he has a chance to place himself in line for a title shot when he faces the former champion. This will be a big step up in class for MacDonald and a huge obstacle for him to cross. I can only see Franklin being too big, too strong, and too well rounded for MacDonald to pull off the upset here. If MacDonald can get this fight to the ground, it would provide him his best shot at pulling out a victory. He has ability to submit most anyone in the Middleweight division but he will have to work extra hard if he wants to pull one on “Ace”. The more likely scenario I see is Franklin controlling this fight standing and landing a shot that will put MacDonald out and end his hot streak.
Prediction- Franklin via KO round 1
Betus.com Odds:
Rich Franklin -500
Jason MacDonald +400
My Risk Rating- 3
Drew McFedries vs. Martin Kampmann
McFedries showed toughness and that he can punch with a striker when he was able to stop the heavily favored Alessio Sakara. He will be facing a well-rounded fighter in Kampmann, who can end the fight wherever he wants. This could start off as a battle on the feet with the man taking more punishment attempting to take it down. Can McFedries make it two upsets in a row? Not in my eyes. Kampmann controls this fight whether it stays standing or if he decides to take it down. McFedries is coming out of the great Militech camp but I don’t see him escaping three rounds in this one.
Prediction- Kampmann via submission round 1
Betus.com Odds:
Martin Kampmann -280
Drew McFedries +220
My Risk Rating- 4
Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle
Hughes returns in his first bout since dropping the Welterweight title to, now UFC Welterweight champion, Georges “Rush” St. Pierre. He takes on, `The Ultimate Fighter’ season 4 runner up Chris Lytle, who a lot of people feel should’ve gotten the decision over winner Matt Serra. I cannot see this playing out any other way other than Hughes overpowering the smaller Lytle and pounding his way to a stoppage with relative ease. I don’t feel this is a fight that will help prepare Hughes for a rematch with St. Pierre. He wanted to take on a couple tough fights before stepping back in with the champion. He said in a recent interview that he requested Diego Sanchez but the UFC informed him that they already had plans for Sanchez. I would have much rather seen that fight as it has much more meaning and excitement behind it. Sanchez is on a tear and could claim to be the number one contender to the title, plus he’s still undefeated. Hughes is the greatest Welterweight of all time looking to reclaim the title. That alone would be enough to sell the fight but then you have two egos that truly believe they are the greatest Welterweights alive with the winner making it clear where they stand. But unfortunately, while that day may in fact come soon, for now we get to see Hughes display what he does best and that’s his great ground and pound offense.
Prediction- Hughes via TKO round 1
Betus.com Odds:
Matt Hughes -500
Chris Lytle +400
My Risk Rating-
Champion-Tim “The Maine-iac Sylvia” vs. Challenger-Randy “The Natural” Couture
It’s the return of mixed martial arts legend and hall of famer, Randy Couture! He’s taking on the current UFC Heavyweight champion and the man who refuses to let go of his title, literally, Tim Sylvia. Creeping up on 44 years of age, Couture has made his mark in the sport and the fans love him. While it’s great to see him return for one more crack at making history, I don’t believe this was the way to go. The seven inches he will give up and big weight disadvantage, I just can’t see Couture pulling this off because of his history in the Heavyweight division and bigger opposition. Am I counting Couture completely out? Never. If there’s a man in this sport that can make you eat the word `never’ it’s him. He has performed at a very high level in general and even more so for his age, but the takedowns will be extremely hard for him to get. Sylvia has shown he has really good takedown defense as of late and has used his height and reach to it’s max and it has been very effective. I look for Sylvia to try and make a statement in this fight to all the naysayers that have begun preaching that he just does enough to hold on to the title and not finish fights. He will be poised but show more aggression when the opportunity presents itself and take full advantage. Sorry Randy but I can’t see you toppling the giant at this stage, but I also won’t say I’ll be disappointed if you become a three time UFC Heavyweight champion either. A storybook comeback is always entertaining and inspiring!
Prediction- Sylvia via TKO round 2
Betus.com Odds:
Tim Sylvia -280
Randy Couture +220
My Risk Rating- 3
Final Thoughts
While this is definitely far from my favorite UFC card, it does provide a couple interesting matches. Some of which are on the undercard and I hope make the PPV. It’ll be interesting to see how the former UFC golden boys come back from their recent losses and retirement, while the younger guys have a chance to steal their spotlight. While I had wished I would have made the trip to the state over to catch it live, I’m now ok with my decision to pass on it. With the MMA ban now lifted in my home state of Pennsylvania, it won’t be long until I’m traveling to the Wachovia center, fourty-five minutes to an hour away, to catch some MMA action. New York should be soon to follow (although I find I keep saying this with no change) along with other surrounding states until most of the U.S. is allowing it. Eventually, some of us won’t have to keep flying around the country to catch it and it will only be a short drive away, let’s hope!
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