INTRO
UFC makes its' way to Ohio to deliver their 68th numbered-show being dubbed “The Uprising,” this weekend.
The talk of the town going into the show is obviously the main event for the Heavyweight title, as Tim Sylvia defends his gold against the only other two-time champion in Heavyweight division history – Randy Couture. If you'll spare a few minutes, we'll go ahead and break down this fight and the rest of the card in my cheesey little no-name preview column.
Jamie Varner vs. Jason Gilliam
Boone's Breakdown: I don't know much about either guy. I've only seen one of them, once. That was Varner's loss to Hermes Franca and honestly I don't even really remember how the fight went. Looking strictly at stats, which is a blatant no-no, I'll have to lean towards Gilliam. A fun fact is Gilliam has never had a fight go the distance, and the only two fights (out of 13) of Varner's career that have gone the distance were his first two professional MMA bouts. So, we can probably expect a finish somewhere inside the distance, which is never a bad thing. That's about all I've got for ya here, and I dug deep to even conjure this much up.
Gleison Tibau vs. Jason Dent
Boone's Breakdown: Here comes another fun-fact-filled ramble all based on stats. Where would we be without the ever-popular Sherdog Fight Finder? It has bailed me out of many jams. We've got two guys here, each with one failed trip to the world-famous octagon, but both against high-caliber opposition. Again strictly based off records, it would seem Dent has more experience against top fighters. Yeah, I got nothing. I'll make a blind pick and say Tibau takes it. I'm worthless, I know.
Jon Fitch vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Boone's Breakdown: First off – why? Why is this a prelim? Jon Fitch is this generation's version of Sean Sherk in the UFC. A top fighter constantly stuck in preliminary bouts only televised if “they get around to it.” On paper this should be an awesome fight. Fitch is emerging as a new force in the very stacked UFC Welterweight division. His opponent is a good friend of ours here at MMANews.com, Luigi Fioravanti. A very talented fighter who most remember as the blue haired guy against Chris Leben's red. The pepsi combo of hairstyles. He came up short that night, but has since bounced back with four straight wins – his most recent against former UFC champion one-division north, Dave Menne. This one has all the makings of an action fight, and considering both guys are both pretty known guys, I really don't see why this one is a prelim. Anyways, I'm going with Fitch here.
Matt Hamill vs. Rex Holman
Boone's Breakdown: We've got wrestling powerhouse Matt Hamill back again in the UFC, this time against a newcomer in Rex Holman. Can't tell you much about Holman, and you already know Hamill from the reality show. Unless Holman is a nicely kept secret, this should be a showcase fight for Hamill, which doesn't make much sense since it's going to be a preliminary bout on the show. Yes, a showcase fight that no one will see because out of all the prelims, this one has probably the best chance of being a stalled-wrestling type fight that goes to a decision. Advantage – Hamill.
Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Jason Lambert
Boone's Breakdown: Both guys are coming off knockout losses and both are in around the same spot in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. That would suggest a win here is going to be a big one for whoever receives it. This looks to be a competitive fight, and should be an exciting one too. I've got to lean with Babalu here, I just see him being too well-rounded for Lambert and Babalu will get him in some form or fashion later on in the fight. Babalu is in the Frank Trigg position in the UFC though, as he's already fought and lost in devastating fashion to champion Chuck Liddell twice. It's going to be hard to sell a third fight between the two, so he's got little to look forward to until someone derails the Liddell train.
Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald
Boone's Breakdown: Jason MacDonald has come out of nowhere to become the spoiler of all spoilers in the UFC. His last two fights in the UFC basically saw the company throw him to the wolves, only for him to turn around and grab the “W” anyway both times. He did it against two impressive fighters too in Chris Leben and Ed Herman. Franklin, however, is on another level. And while many count MacDonald out here, something just seems weird in this one. Don't get me wrong, I've got Franklin winning like everyone else but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see MacDonald pull it off.
Martin Kampmann vs. Drew McFedries
Boone's Breakdown: A lot have this one a little more close than it is because of McFedries' last outing, which was an impressive stoppage of the up-and-coming Alessio Sakara. He was Carmelo Marrero to Sakara's Cheick Kongo. But what happened in Marrero's next fight? He was armbed in a little over a minute against Gabriel Gonzaga. That's kind of what I see here. I see Kampmann being too much for McFedries, and should get the stoppage via KO or TKO at some point in the fight.
Matt Hughes vs. Chris Lytle
Boone's Breakdown: Everyone knows the story here too. Hughes is expected to come in and “go back to his roots” (which he supposedly did after the loss to B.J. Penn anyway) which means wrestle Lytle down and ground and pound the shit out of him. That's probably the most likely scenerio here too. If Lytle can avoid the ground at all, it's a totally different fight. And even on the ground, if Hughes isn't “the old Matt Hughes” and relentless with his ground and pound, Lytle could shock us, as he's got skills in every facet of the fight-game. In the end, I agree with everyone else in thinking Hughes will be too much for Lytle to handle.
Tim Sylvia (c) vs. Randy Couture (UFC HW Title)
Boone's Breakdown: Everyone wants to bring up how Couture supposedly can't handle bigger guys, and Tim Sylvia is the biggest he's ever had to face. Sure, Couture did lose twice against two big Heavyweights, but how many Heavyweights did he beat? I won't bother going back to Sherdog because I actually know these two, but it was a lot! And even in the two losses against big guys, against Ricco Rodriguez he was dominating the piss out of him for several rounds before it got turned around on him and his eye socket was crushed. The other loss against a big guy was Josh Barnett, who is still one of the top five Heavyweights today, and he was on steroids when he beat Couture. So let's not just count Couture out because he's fighting a big guy.
Another Couture fact that's important here is the fact that he's the underdog. Only once in history has Couture lost as the betting underdog, and that was the third fight against Chuck Liddell. And not to sit here and make excuses for all of Couture's losses (even though that's pretty much exactly what I'm doing) no one seems to want to point out the fact that in the third Liddell fight, the knockout came when Couture slipped and ate the punch well off-balance.
So now we know what's up with the big guys theory and the underdog theory, the third most pointed out factor in this match is everyone's favorite, age. Couture is almost 44 years old, Tim Sylvia is almost 31. So what it's Randy Couture. That's pretty much all I need to say for that one.
Now style wise. On paper, Sylvia has the perfect style to beat Couture. It's Chuck Liddell only bigger, and two out of three times that was too much for Couture at 205. God knows how he's going to deal with a similar opponent 60 pounds heavier, but he wouldn't of made this his out-of-retirement fight if he didn't see something. Like he's said in pre-fight interviews many times, he's going to get in Sylvia's face and make him work. Cardio has never really been an issue for Sylvia despite his size, but I don't think he's ever gone at a Randy Couture pace for five rounds, let alone one. If Couture is able to make that happen, things could get interesting. If Couture can close the distance more often than not, another thing that will spice up the action in the bout.
In the end it would seem crazy to bet for Couture in this one, but at the same time it almost seems crazy to bet against him.
OUTRO
This is the kind of show that the hardcore fans might label as a one-match show, that obviously being the Heavyweight title main event. And if you limit it down to that group, even half of them think the fight is pointless because Couture shouldn't stand a chance. However, the show sold out incredibly quick and I expect the pay-per view to do big business. The bottom line is stars sell, and UFC has four of their biggest stars all on the show here. Two of them, the two former champions, haven't been seen since their knockout losses that cost them their belts. A lot are curious to see how they'll do now in this their first fight back.
As a fan, I'm excited enough about this one, but coming off the amazing PRIDE 33 “The Second Coming” show last weekend, it's going to be hard to really match those efforts with them fresh in MMA fans' minds. That is, unless Couture pulls off the upset and gets back the Heavyweight title, that's a juicy topic guaranteed to keep the message board freaks going for weeks. It'd be another humongous coup for Team Quest, and call me crazy – but I see it coming.
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